A geopolitical crisis does not always remain confined to the battlefield. It can move through shipping routes, energy markets and commodity supply chains before eventually reaching farms and households. That risk is becoming more visible as disruptions linked to the conflicts in Ukraine and West Asia add pressure to global fertiliser and grain supplies.

External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar recently warned of a potential major food crisis in the coming months, pointing to fertiliser shortages, disrupted grain shipments and the additional risk from a possible strong El Niño. Speaking at an Asia Society event in New York, he said the combined pressure on food, fuel, fertiliser and finance was creating significant stress for economies across the Global South.

For India, the issue deserves attention because fertiliser availability, agricultural production, food prices and inflation are closely connected. Investors looking at companies exposed to agriculture and commodities can also use fundamental analysis of Indian stocks to understand how changing input costs and broader economic conditions can affect individual businesses.

Why Fertiliser Matters to Food Security

Food production does not begin when crops are harvested. It begins much earlier, with access to seeds, water, energy, fertilisers and other agricultural inputs.

Fertilisers provide essential nutrients required for crop growth. Nitrogen, phosphate and potash-based products are particularly important for modern agriculture. When their availability falls or prices rise sharply, farmers can face higher production costs.

The impact can then move through the agricultural supply chain:

Geopolitical disruption → higher input costs → fertiliser supply pressure → higher farming costs → potential food-price pressure

This is why fertiliser shortages can become an economic issue rather than remaining an agricultural one.

India’s dependence on imported raw materials makes the situation particularly relevant. According to recent reporting, sulphur has emerged as a major pressure point, with import prices rising sharply amid disruptions associated with conflicts in West Asia and Ukraine. Sulphur is an important input for several fertilisers, including DAP, SSP and complex fertilisers.

Ukraine and West Asia Are Adding Supply-Chain Pressure

The global fertiliser market is highly interconnected. Production depends on raw materials, energy, transportation and international trade routes.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has already affected global agricultural and commodity markets. The latest tensions in West Asia are creating another layer of uncertainty by affecting energy supplies, shipping routes and access to key industrial inputs.

Jaishankar’s warning comes against this broader backdrop. According to reports of his Asia Society remarks, disruptions to grain shipments and fertiliser supplies could compound existing pressures on developing economies.

The significance for India is not necessarily that the country is currently facing a nationwide fertiliser shortage. In fact, the government has said that fertiliser supplies for the upcoming rabi season are adequate. The Centre reported opening fertiliser stocks of around 16.3 million tonnes, compared with 12.2 million tonnes at the beginning of the previous rabi season.

The larger concern is whether prolonged international disruptions could increase procurement costs, create logistical challenges or affect availability in future crop cycles.

India’s Fertiliser Challenge Goes Beyond Urea

India has taken steps to protect domestic fertiliser availability, including diversified sourcing and long-term supply arrangements. The government said in July that geopolitical disruptions had affected imports of ammonia, phosphoric acid and sulphur, while higher freight and insurance costs had also increased pressure on the supply chain.

Sulphur is particularly important because it is used in the production of several fertiliser products.

Recent data reported by The Indian Express showed that India’s annual sulphur consumption is around 3.8–3.9 million tonnes, with fertiliser manufacturers accounting for roughly 2–2.1 million tonnes. Imported sulphur prices had risen substantially during 2026 amid supply disruptions and growing demand from other industries.

This demonstrates why looking only at finished fertiliser stocks can miss part of the picture. Raw-material availability and international prices can influence the cost structure further down the supply chain.

For investors tracking this theme, Alice Blue’s fertiliser stocks in India resource provides background on the listed companies operating in this segment. However, sector exposure alone should not be treated as an indication of future stock performance.

El Niño Adds Another Layer of Risk

Geopolitical disruptions are only one part of the current food-security equation.

Weather conditions can influence agricultural output just as significantly. The Indian government has lowered its foodgrain production target for the 2026–27 crop year to 373.93 million tonnes, compared with estimated production of 376.56 million tonnes in 2025–26. The revision takes into account concerns around El Niño, rainfall and water availability.

The target includes 177.72 million tonnes for the rabi season.

This does not mean India is projecting a food shortage. In fact, the revised target remains above the 362.60 million tonne target originally set for 2025–26, while actual production reached 376.56 million tonnes.

Instead, the adjustment reflects greater uncertainty around weather conditions and agricultural yields.

When weather risks and supply-chain risks occur at the same time, the potential pressure on agricultural markets becomes more complicated.

How Fertiliser Costs Can Affect Food Inflation

The relationship between fertiliser prices and consumer inflation is not immediate or one-to-one.

Farmers may absorb part of an increase in input costs. Government subsidies can also reduce the direct impact on farmers for certain fertiliser products. Weather conditions, crop yields, inventories, imports and government policies all influence the final price consumers pay.

However, persistent increases in agricultural input costs can contribute to broader cost pressures.

This is particularly important for India because food has a significant weight in household consumption and the inflation basket. Higher food prices can influence household budgets, consumption patterns and the broader inflation environment.

For investors, this is where macroeconomic analysis becomes relevant. Inflation can affect interest-rate expectations, borrowing costs, consumption and corporate margins. Understanding how inflation affects the stock market can help put commodity and agricultural developments into a wider market context.

The Global South Faces a Bigger Challenge

The potential impact is particularly significant for developing economies that depend heavily on imported energy, fertilisers or food.

When international commodity prices rise, countries have to spend more to secure essential supplies. This can put pressure on trade balances, government finances and foreign-exchange reserves.

Higher energy costs can create another feedback loop. Fertiliser production itself can be energy-intensive, particularly for nitrogen-based fertilisers. As energy prices rise, production and transportation costs can also increase.

This is why Jaishankar has described the current environment through the interconnected pressures of food, fuel, fertiliser and finance.

For countries with limited fiscal capacity, managing all four pressures simultaneously can become difficult.

What It Means for India

India has several factors working in its favour, including domestic agricultural production, government intervention in fertiliser availability and substantial foodgrain stocks.

The government has also said that it is taking steps to diversify fertiliser sourcing and secure supplies amid global disruptions.

At the same time, India’s exposure to imported raw materials means global commodity movements cannot be ignored.

The coming months could therefore be important for tracking:

Global fertiliser prices and availability
Sulphur, ammonia and phosphoric acid prices
Crude oil and natural gas prices
Grain export restrictions and shipping disruptions
Monsoon and El Niño developments
India’s foodgrain production
Government fertiliser subsidy and import policies
Food inflation

These indicators can provide a more complete picture than looking at food prices alone.

What Could a Fertiliser Shock Mean for Markets?

A prolonged fertiliser supply disruption could affect different parts of the economy in different ways.

Agricultural input companies may face changes in raw-material costs and selling prices. Farmers could experience higher input expenses. Food companies may face changes in procurement costs. Consumers could see pressure on food prices if higher costs eventually pass through the supply chain.

The effect on individual companies would depend on factors such as their business model, pricing power, inventory levels, input exposure and ability to pass costs to customers.

This is why investors need to look beyond a headline such as “fertiliser prices are rising”. Company-specific financial analysis remains important. Alice Blue’s complete guide to fundamental analysis explains the broader framework investors can use to assess financial statements, industry conditions and company-specific factors.

Why the Food Crisis Warning Matters

Jaishankar’s warning does not mean that India is currently facing a major food shortage. The government has specifically stated that fertiliser supplies for the upcoming rabi season are adequate.

The larger issue is the accumulation of risks.

Geopolitical conflicts can disrupt shipping and commodity supplies. Energy prices can affect fertiliser production. Fertiliser costs can influence agricultural economics. Weather conditions can affect crop yields. And food prices can influence inflation and household consumption.

Each factor alone may be manageable. The challenge emerges when several of them occur simultaneously.

For India and other Global South economies, building resilient supply chains therefore becomes increasingly important. Diversifying sources, maintaining adequate inventories, strengthening domestic production capabilities and improving agricultural efficiency can all help reduce vulnerability to external shocks.

The Next Global Risk May Start Before the Farm

The global food system is dependent on a network that extends far beyond farms and food markets.

It includes energy producers, fertiliser manufacturers, shipping companies, commodity traders, governments and financial institutions. A disruption at one point can eventually affect the entire chain.

That makes fertiliser an important indicator to watch as geopolitical tensions continue to reshape global commodity markets.

For India, the immediate focus remains on maintaining adequate fertiliser availability, managing food inflation and protecting agricultural output despite weather-related uncertainty.

But the bigger lesson is broader: food security increasingly depends on supply-chain security.

As the world navigates geopolitical conflicts and changing weather patterns, the question may not simply be whether enough food exists. It may be whether the global system can reliably deliver the energy, fertiliser, logistics and financing needed to produce it.